Bigyan Prasai,
Chartered Certified Accountant, London
Member of Central Department NJSS: Nepali Congress
The recent situation of country suggests that it is moving towards disarray and chaos. It seems the aspiration of the peoples towards the progression of the country seems dismayed. The esteem and the moral values of the people and the representative of the people have been shattered by the power game of the key actors both national and international. In spite of the two third majority of the alliance, the situation looks shaky and insecure. The conflict of interest of different actors has messed up the hopes and expectation of the peoples. The recent report of the Army Chief General Gaurav Shamsher to the PM Sushil Koirala as reported on the news bothered me to draw up this brief analysis of the current political setting. His report to some extent is true but not to the whole extent. Here I would like to explain the different power centre, their influence and interest. Let I first roll down the list of the key actors: 1) Alliance of Nepali Congress and UML, RPP and other small parties (this represents 75% of the people) 2) Madhesi Front 3) Nepal Maoist Party: All Maoists 4) India: its old state oriented Indian Bureaucracy and its Research Wing 5) Indian and New Government under BJP 6) China 7) European Union and US 8) Some segments of indigenous group 9) Small but smart hidden section of Actor to establish.
Monarchy in whatever form. The present situation of the country is the interaction of all of the above actors in different aspect and with different degree of influence. First of all I will analyse each factor, their interest and the level of influence in sequence. The Alliance of Nepali Congress Party and the UML, RPP and other small democratic parties is the most critical and influential factor of the current politics of Nepal. This alliance represents the 2/3 majority of the people. The guilt of the previous development failure in their regime, this force is determined to promulgate the new constitution in the timely manner and move ahead in the path of development. Despite of the managerial failures of both NC and UML, people have again bestowed the responsibility of the country. The Psychology of the shame and guilt have determined these actors to promulgate the new constitution in the stipulated time as promised to the people in the General Election last year through the Party Manifesto. The recent activities suggest that they are determined to float the constitution by 2/3 majority as per the spirit of the interim constitution. But they seem worried under pressure with different interest groups that the country may become unrest if they chose to move ahead. The country is situated in such a geopolitical strategic location that because of this, the world powerful country US and its Alliance EU who have been predominantly exerting power through the globe, has increased the interest and intervention in our geography. Securing No 1 largest economy, China now has now increased its ambition to translate this economic power to political power. The threat of losing international grip US and its alliance has been closely intervening our politics. They have pour in million pounds through different Non Governmental Channels to promote ethnical base federalism to create and disharmonise our society with a sole interest to create a favourable situation for their entrant. Their entrant and presence is serving the interest to increase Christianity and misuse our land against China. The recent statement of British Ambassador to Nepal to insert the provision of right to transform religion in the constitution clearly spills their interior motive. The Agenda of ethnic federalism and religious secularism are the agendas of these US, EU alliance. The Old Indian State Oriented Indian Bureaucracy and RAW is still on its old agenda to dilute Nepalese Sovereignty and Bhutanise Nepal and keep under its defence umbrella, which it has been proposing and seeking since long time. So this Actor does not want a system or constitution which may not be favourable to their strategy. New Government under BJP has distorted from this strategy. BJP wants stable Nepal and wants its dominance but with different interest and strategy, because of its inclination to Hinduism and with an understanding that Hinduism is linked to Kingship. BJP has a hidden interest to restore Hinduism and cultural king but through people ie through referendum. Unless this assurance is provided they are not whole hearted in the favour of stipulating timely constitution. China, wants a stable Nepal because of the threat of US/EU alliance in interfering their land through Tibet. Only China seems to be whole heartily in the favour of timely constitution without ethnic federalism and that is on its national interest. Maoist and Madhesi front are actors who have been used by US/EU/India in order to execute their strategy. Their interest is power trade off with this forces and securing share of power through them. They do not adhere to any political principle and national values. They do not have any people legitimate power and always using the tactics of negation to grip on country political and economical power. The majority of the people of the indigenous group are nationalist, honest and simple people. Some of the so called indigenous leaders under the influence of power and money of European Union have been actively involved to misguide the indigenous people in small spectrum of the society. As the last general election outcome suggest that the majority of these indigenous groups are against the ethnic based federalism. The Section Loyalist of Past King has also been actively and smartly involved in the exercise to fulfil their interest. I smell (slightly) a rat that the recent briefing of the Army Chief Gaurab Shamsher is a part of it. All those actors who do not want the constitution to be promulgated in the stipulated time are using a common strategy of Scare and Squeeze. Solution By analysing the fragile situation I would suggest Nepali congress, UML and its alliance to move ahead with risk averse balanced strategy. On one hand it has to keep the promise it has made to the people to stipulate the constitution and on the other hand it has to handle the resistance of combined force of influential international actor. So in order to minimise chaos and unrest and also to keep the aspiration of the people who has bestowed trust upon them, it is important to reach to a very sensible approach and decision. So it is utmost important and wise to promulgate the constitution on 8 Margh with total consensus if possible or if not with a consensus of 2/3 majority , construing all the agendas that has been agreed upon or nearly agreed upon leaving the disputed area to be promised to be sorted out by the Parliament within 1 year. This will minimise the conflict and also gives people the constitution with the only remaining disputed area to be resolved with greater inclusion.
